Though I had mentioned in my every daily analysis report from last 4-5 days that the wave counts for the move of Nifty from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825 is not completely clear and we need to concentrate only on the last bounce started from 7715 for immediate trades until we see any confident pattern but still I am getting 10s of request every day about the wave counts of this move and receiving at least 4-5 charts everyday from my subscribers with their wave counts and guesses.
So, I am preparing this special report explaining the possibilities and difficulties to satisfy to subscribers/students. Let’s see the bounce from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825 on daily chart:
This is the daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move from 29 Feb 2016 low 6825. If I assume that 1st impulses is completed from 6825-7777 which can be wave (A or 1) as shown on chart then next correction from 7777-7516 would be wave (B or 2).
But next wave (C or 3) took almost double time than (A or 1) but is still less than 100% projection which is not normal. Wave (3) known to be steeper, faster and longer than (1) but there it is very slow. It is the point to be cautious that may be wave (A or 1) is not completed at 7777 and next wave is not (C or 3).
Even if we see inner wave (v) of (A or 1) completed from 7405-7777 then it is not normal. Have a look at next hourly chart.
This is hourly chart of Nifty covering move from 7405-7777 which I have shown as wave (v) of (A or 1) on daily chart. There is only single way to mark this wave as impulse as I have marked on chart, it cannot be Ending Diagonal.
In this case wave (5) is highly extended which is even more than 161% projection. Such highly extended wave is possible but in rare cases. And we must be cautious when waves are not following normal rules.
Let me show you one more possibility for this move:
This is again daily chart covering move from 6825. If I assume first impulse is completed from 6825-7978 which can be wave (A or 1) the next correction (Irregular Correction) from 7978-7678 would be wave (B or 2).
Minimum 100% projection for next wave (C or 3) in this case is placed at 8831 which is far away and there is a doubt if it can reach there or not as Inner wave (i) of (C or 3) is of just 200 points and is small.
Even if this wave started from 7678 is going for 8831 then also any trading decision or stoploss or immediate targets can be calculated based on last wave started from 7715 only. The previous waves started from 6825 are of no use for fresh trades and stoploss now.
These are some difficulties and confusions which I had explained within this move. These confusions we are seeing on daily chart but if you look at their inner waves on lower time charts then it is even more complicated. If you see my old reports step by step then you will find most complex patterns within this move.
And there are repeated Irregular Correction within this move because of which we faced difficulties to identify exact moves previously. And I have just shown 4 Irregular Correction which can be seen on daily charts otherwise there are many repeated Irregular Correction if you look at lower time frame charts.
Learners needs to understand that market go through different faces. Some time it is very easy to identify every single move, some time it is quite difficult and sometime it is very complex. We have only way to wait when the waves are not following normal rules and need concentrate on lowest time frame chart in those conditions to identify immediate moves. There is no other way. That’s is the reason I am concentrating on the last wave started from 7715 only and we are succeeding to identify the opportunities for 60-100 points move with 20-30 points stoploss for which we practically trade.
And for my subscribers/learners who are sending me chart for the same move with their wave counts. Please try to understand that you can’t counts waves of your own choice and whatever you want. There are some rules and patterns which every wave needs to follow otherwise it is just guess. And what is the meaning of analysis if you want to make guess, even guesses have 50% chance to be accurate. Please try to check all the rules whenever you are marking a wave or pattern.
And I can’t simply guess and show chart saying that “I guess this should be the pattern” or “I believe it is this pattern going on”. Guesses and blind believes are ok if I am just preparing a chart and posting on social platforms but I have responsibility of about 500 students and 4000 followers who are learning from these report. I am responsible to give them best and honest, I can’t just guess and give them wrong teaching.
So, I will wait until I identify any confident pattern for this move and will concentrate on last waves started from 7715 for trading till then. Because even if I know Nifty is going for 8831, I can’t just say “Buy for target 8800” as stoploss would be 200-300 points in this case which is not practical, a single wrong trade will wipe out your account. No matter where the market goes, it will give the opportunity for 100-150 points with 20-30 points stoploss at every level.
And just remember, the aim of analysis is not to make predictions like Nifty will go 8500-8800 or 7700-7300, it will not help in trading. Analysis is to identify low risk trading opportunity, make low risk high reward trading strategies and take action accordingly.