This Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty was prepared and sent yesterday to my clients. I generally don’t post late analysis report on my blog but posting because of request from some of my old clients/students who want to confirm their counts.
Nifty opened Gap down today as expected and achieved 8034 in first attempt just after opening and bounced 90 points till 8122 after that. But Nifty failed to sustain at higher levels and decline again to achieve exactly 61% projection of wave (5) at 7997 and bounced 80 points again from low. Nifty bounced twice from the range 8030-8000 I given yesterday expected for short term/intraday reversal. Finally Nifty closed 39 points negative at 8057.
Today I am covering the move from 06 May’s high 8355 only as previous counts are same as I explained in my yesterday’s analysis report of Nifty. Read Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 07 May 2015
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering last decline after 8355 which I am seeing as start for wave 5 as impulse. It seems wave (5) as impulse is completed from 8355 to 7997 today as shown on chart. But inner wave 5 of this impulse seems completed at Ending Diagonal Triangle. This ED I explained below on separate chart. We can see minimum bounce till 8150 -8180 if counts on above chart are right. Let’s see the formation of Ending Diagonal Triangle on separate chart.
This is again 5 minutes time bar charts of Nifty covering move after 8182 which I am expecting as start of Ending Diagonal Triangle (ED). The whole move doesn’t looks like clean impulse from any angle so there is possibility of Ending Diagonal Triangle as I shown on chart.
All waves 1, 3, 4 and 5 are of “abc” structure where as wave 2 is Triple Zigzag (complex correction). Wave 4 is irregular correction with only 61% wave (c). There is also breakout from upper line joining end of wave 2 and 4.
We can see a very sharp move upside if this is really a completed ED and breakout happened.
But, the bounce from low 7997 is very sharp and sometimes a sharp bounce at closing is a part of correction which reverses completely and sharply. So, Nifty needs to open gap up and need to trade above opening price after 9:30 to confirm it as wave 1 and 2. Otherwise, may be this bounce is wave (c) of 4 and last leg 5 is still pending for new low.
Nifty chart is suggesting gap up and minimum bounce till 8150-8180. It seems a bigger impulse completed from 8844-7997, so minimum bounce expected is 8150 but if break 8270 then Nifty can also rise for 8400 or 8680 or may be new high which is impossible to predict now. So, the strategy would be to ride the bounce with trailing stop loss at every rise after seeing progressing waves.
The stop loss for existing longs as per present condition should be 8027 that must be reduced if nifty break above 8122. Keep trailing/reducing stop loss if bounce continues.
If nifty didn’t open Gap Up tomorrow and failed to sustain above 8078 after opening then we can also see new low followed by bounce. The exact pattern in this case can be identified only during live market hours after seeing latest waves.
This is my honest analysis based on my understanding of Elliott Wave Theory and is prepared for my students for training purpose. The conclusion of this report is to show my students how they can conclude the moves and levels of market by reading waves combined with wave’s personalities, wave patterns and Fibonacci Calculations.
Trading based on this analysis report will be your own decision.