Nifty Trading Strategy for Monday 22 Jun 2020 Based on Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty Trading Strategies for Monday, 22 Jun 2020 with probable outlook, low risk entry levels and stoploss based on Elliott Wave Theory Analysis

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Nifty opened bit higher at 10119, declined to register low 10072 but bounced back again by about 200 points to register day’s high 10272 and closed 152 points up at 10244.

Friday, 10048-10007 was immediate support and 10007 was immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty was in positive zone and had possibility to bounce towards 10120-10183.

But Nifty opened gap up and bounced till 10162. Later 10087-10040 was updated as immediate/intraday support and 10040 as immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty entered in support, registered low 10072 and bounced till 10272. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

We are analyzing Nifty on all time frames and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.

Table of Contents

Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Monthly Chart as on 22 Jun 2020

Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Monthly Chart
Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Monthly Chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.

23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.

Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 as major resistance but Nifty bounced above 10027 again.

Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.

So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.

Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Daily Chart as on 22 Jun 2020

Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Daily Chart
Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart. Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems an impulse completed from 12430-7511 and same can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 9390-10550 and same levels can act as major resistance. Nifty already entered in 9390-10550 range and registered high 10328.

From low 7511, it seems an (abc) wave completed from 7511-9889 but decline from 9889-8806 is also corrective (abc) and next wave bounced above 9889 again.

This (abc) bounce followed by (abc) decline followed by bounce is making the pattern complex. It can be progress of double zigzag correction with first (abc) cycle completed from 7511-9889, wave (X) may be completed from 9889-8806 and 2nd (abc) cycle may be in progress.

Within 2nd wave cycle, may be wave (a) completed from 8806-10328, and (b) may be completed from 10328-9544 and wave (c) may be in progress.

Or it may be some other pattern going on which I am not able to identify yet. I just tried to mark most probable wave counts otherwise confidence is always low when pattern is complex.

Now, let’s have a separate look at bounce after recent low 9544 to check its pattern.

Nifty Elliott Wave Theory Analysis on 15 Minutes Chart as on 22 Jun 2020

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis on 15 Minutes Chart
Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after recent low 9544 which I am analysing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 9544-9996, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 9996-9728 as Irregular Correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 9728-10003, wave (ii) may be completed from 10003-9845 and wave (iii) may be either completed at 10272 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 10171-10108. So 10171-10108 is immediate support and 10108 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 10108 and can bounce towards 10272-10328 if hold 10108.

Breaks and stay below 10108 for more than 15 minutes can result in decline towards 9845-9728 again.

Note: Pattern is complex on Daily and 15 minutes chart. I tried to mark most probable wave counts but these counts can change or can be wrong because it is tough to identify correct waves within complex pattern.  So, we need to concentrate on wave counts, pattern and levels of bounce after recent low 9544 (15 Minutes Chart) for trading until bigger pattern gets clear.

Nifty Outlook with Important Levels for Monday 22 Jun 2020

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Long Term and Medium Term

9390-10550 is long/medium term resistance and Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 10550. We can think of any bigger reversal after 2-3 closes above 10550 only.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Short Term and Intraday

10171-10108 is immediate support and 10108 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 10108 and can bounce towards 10272-10328 if hold 10108.

Breaks and stay below 10108 for more than 15 minutes can result in decline towards 9845-9728 again.

Nifty Trading Strategies for Monday, 22 Jun 2020

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Nifty is volatile and pattern on daily chart is complex. Trading with exact stoploss may not work in such conditions because waves often retrace or project abnormally during volatility complex patterns. Stoploss can be used on 15 minutes closing basis, these closing basis stoploss can be risky so it is better to do hedged trade for protection against big loss and exit trade if Nifty spot completes a complete 15 minutes candle above/below stoploss.

Low Risk Trading strategy is to buy on decline in 10171-10108 range with stoploss below 10108 on 15 minutes closing basis for upside targets 10272-10328. Hedged trade is recommended and exit longs if Nifty spot trades below 10108 continuously for 15 minutes.

Nifty if breaks and stay below 10108 for more than 15 minutes then trading strategy will be selling on bounce towards 10108-10171 with stoploss above 10171 on 15 minutes closing basis for downside targets 9845-9728. Hedged trade is recommended and exit shorts if Nifty spot trades above 10171 continuously for 15 minutes.

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