Nifty Targets and Trading Strategies for Monday, 18 May 2020

Nifty Targets, outlook, important levels and low risk trading strategies for Monday, 18 May 2020 based on Elliott Wave Theory analysis by Deeoak Kumar

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Nifty opened higher at 9182 and declined just after opening to register days’ low 9050 but bounced back again and closed 5 points down at 9136.

Yesterday, 9192-9237 was immediate resistance and Nifty was expected to decline towards 9043-8811-8628. But staying above 9237 for more than 15 minutes could result in further bounce towards 9429-9584.

Nifty opened higher at 9182 but declined sharply just after opening without entering in resistance 9192-9237 and registered low 9050. Later, 9139-9194 was fresh immediate/intraday resistance same was updated on WhatsApp. Nifty entered in resistance and closed at 9136. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

We are analyzing Nifty on all time frames and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.

Table of Contents

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Monthly Chart for Long Term

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Monthly Chart for Long Term
Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Monthly Chart for Long Term

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.

23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.

Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.

Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.

So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Daily Chart for Medium Term

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Daily Chart for Medium Term
Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Daily Chart for Medium Term

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart. Again there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7511.

The impulse completed from 12430-7511 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 9390-10550 and same levels can act as resistance. Nifty already entered in 9390-10550 range, registered high 9889 and declined back.

Now, let’s analyze the bounce after low 7511 to check its pattern and to calculate important levels.

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Hourly Chart for Short Term

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Hourly Chart for Short Term
Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Hourly Chart for Short Term

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 7511 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 7511-9038, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 9038-8055 and wave (c or 3) may be either completed at 9889 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress wave (c or 3) is placed at 9456-9188 and same is broken on hourly closing basis. Break below 9188 is indicating bigger decline towards 8055-7511 and 9188-9456 can act as short term resistance now. Nifty broke resistance 9456 but didn’t stay for an hour.

Now, let’s have a separate look at declined after recent high 9889 on separate lowest time frame to check its pattern.

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 30 Minutes Chart for 18 May 2020, Monday

Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on 30 Minutes Chart for 18 May 2020, Monday

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 9889 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems an impulse completed from 9889-9116 and same can be wave [a or 1]. 38%-61% retracement wave [a or 1] is placed at 9411-9593, Nifty registered high 9584 and declined back.

Wave [b or 2] may be completed from 9116-9584 as Irregular Correction with inner wave (A) completed from 9116-9439, Irregular (B) completed from 9349-9043 and wave (C) completed at 9584.

Wave [c or 3] may be in progress from 9584 and normal 100%-123% projection of wave [c or 3] is placed at 8811-8628.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems inner wave (i) completed from 9584-9352, wave (ii) may be completed from 9352-9429 and wave (iii) may be completed at 9050 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) of [c or 3] is placed at 9139-9194. So, 9139-9194 is immediate resistance and 9194 is immediate upside breakeven point.

Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 9194 and has possibility to decline towards 9043-8811-8628. But break and stay above 9194 can result in further bounce towards 9429-9584.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for 18 May 2020, Monday based on Elliott Wave Analysis

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Long Term

Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now. We can be confident about major upside reversal after staying above 10027 only.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Medium and Short Term

9456-9188 was short term support and same is broken on hourly closing basis. Break below 9188 is indicating bigger decline towards 8055-7511 and 9188-9456 can act as short term resistance now. We need to check pattern again if Nifty stay above 9456 on hourly closing basis.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for 18 May 2020, Monday

9139-9194 is immediate resistance and 9194 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 9194 and has possibility to decline towards 9043-8811-8628.

But break and stay above 9194 can result in further bounce towards 9429-9584.

Low Risk Trading Strategies of Nifty for Monday, 18 May 2020

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Nifty completed an hourly candle below 9188. So positional trading strategy is selling on rise with stoploss above 9456 on hourly closing basis for targets 8055-7511 in coming days/Weeks.

For Intraday, Nifty can be sold if get in 9139-9194 range with stoploss some points above 9194 for downside targets 9043-8811-8628.

Nifty if breaks and stay above 9194 for more than 15 minutes then later decline towards 9194-9139 can be used to buy Nifty with stoploss some points below 9139 expecting bounce towards 9429-9584.

Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

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