Nifty opened higher at 8973, registered low 8904 and bounced back further by more than 200 points to register day’s high 9128 and closed 363 points up at 9119.
Thursday, 8877-8719 was immediate support and 8864-8966 was immediate resistance. Break below 8719 could result in further decline towards 8055-7511 otherwise bounce towards 9138-9582 was possible.
Nifty opened above resistance 8966 and then bounced to register day’s high 9128. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
we are analyzing all time frames again and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.
This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.
Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.
23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.
Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.
Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.
So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.
This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart. Again there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7511.
The impulse completed from 12430-7511 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 23%-38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 8671-9390-10550 and same levels can act as short term resistance. Nifty already entered in Resistance Range.
Now, let’s analyze the bounce after low 7511 to check its pattern and to calculate immediate levels.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 7511 which I am analyzing independently.
It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 7511-9038, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 9038-8055 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 9582-9942.
Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed and wave (v) may be in progress. Minimum 38% projection for wave (v) is placed below 9131, so 9131 is minimum target range for completion of wave (v). Next 61%-100% projection is placed at 9369-9783 which may or may not be achieved. 100% projection for wave (v)  is a rare case.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 8882-8724. So, 8882-8724 is immediate support and 8724 is immediate downside breakeven point.
Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 8724 and has possibility to bounce towards 9369-9783. But Nifty if breaks and stay below 8724 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 8055-7511 again.
Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now. We can be confident about major upside reversal after staying above 10027 only.
8671-9390-10550 can act as short term resistance. Nifty already entered in resistance after break above 8671. We need to concentrate on pattern of bounce after 7511 to calculate immediate outlook and levels.
8882-8724 is immediate support and 8724 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 8724 and has possibility to bounce towards 9369-9582-9783.
But Nifty if breaks and stay below 8724 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 8055-7511 again.
On upside, 9582-9783 can act as strong resistance. Nifty has possibility to decline back towards 8055-7511 before breaking this resistance.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Nifty is still volatile and fear is there in market. We personally like to trade safe and doing hedged trades only. So, we are just suggesting most probable low risk trading strategies to give ideas, traders who want to take risk or can manage trades can use these levels and conditions to plan their own trade.
Nifty if get in 9582-9783 range then selling can be done using stoploss some points above 9783 for downside targets 8055-7511.
Nifty if breaks and stay below 8724 for more than 15 minutes then later bounce towards 8724-8882 can be used to sell Nifty with stoploss some points above 8882 expecting decline towards 8055-7511.
Those who want to buy or holding any longs can use 8724 (15 minutes closing basis) as stoploss for longs, Nifty has possibility to bounce towards 9369-9582.