Nifty opened higher at 11858, declined to register day’s low 11812 but bounced back by more than 140 points to register day’s high 11957 and closed 80 points up at 11924.
Friday, overall 11697-11484 was major support and 11484 for major downside trend reversal point. 11811-11782 was immediate support and 11940-11984 was immediate resistance. Any short term downside reversal was expected after break below 11782 only.
Nifty registered low 11812 (near support), bounced by 140 points and faced resistance in 11940-11984 range. Live updates were sent during live market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Wave ‘5’ achieved minimum projections after breaking above 11761 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 12689 which may or may not be achieved. Wave 5 achieved 12041 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems, inner wave (1) of 5 completed from 10004-10985, wave (2) may be completed from 10985-10585 Double Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be completed from 10585-11856.
Wave (3) is less than 161%, thus not extended. So, wave (5) needs to be extended.
23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 11697-11484. So, 11697-11484 is major support and 11484 is major trend reversal point on downside. Nifty can bounce minimum 778-1258 points from 11697-11484 range but if it breaks and stay below 11484 can result in big decline towards 10585-10004 again.
Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (4) on lowest possible time frame.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 12041 which I marked as start of wave (4) on daily chart. The decline from 12041-11614 is sharp and very last leg from 11859-11614 looks like a 3 waves (abc) move. So, we can’t ignore the possibility of Irregular Correction here.
It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 12041-11779, wave (b or 2) may be in progress as big Irregular correction with inner wave (a) completed from 11779-11859, irregular wave (b) completed from 11859-11614 and wave (c) may be in progress. 61%-78 retracement of wave (a or 1) is placed at 11940-11984 and same is already achieved.
Within wave (c) of (b or 2), it seems inner wave (i), (ii) may be completed and (iii) of (v) may be in progress.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 11886-11842. So, 11886-11842 is immediate support and 11842 is immediate downside breakeven point. We can think of any downside reversal after break below 11842 only.
Note: Irregular Correction is not a simple pattern and there is always a hesitation when there is Irregular Correction or Complex Correction. So, we will concentrate on bounce after 11614 for very short term outlook and assume the trend a positive as long as Nifty is trading above 11842 and think of downside reversal after break below 11842 only.
For Short/Medium Term: – There is no change in overall outlook, same 11697-11484 is major support and 11484 is major trend reversal point on downside and overall conditions are indicating minimum 778-1258 points bounce from 11697-11484 range. But if Nifty breaks and stay below 11484 can result in big decline towards 10585-10004 again.
Nifty already bounce by about 300 points from this major support, we need to concentrate on internal pattern for further calculations.
For Intraday or Very Short Term: Nifty is in positive zone and has possibility of one more bounce of 120-180 point with 11886-11842 as immediate support and 11842 as immediate downside breakeven point.
We can think of any downside reversal after break below 11842 only. Staying below 11842 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 11658-11614.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Trading Points of View:
11614-11484 is low risk Buying Range for positional buying and targets will be minimum 778-1258 points if Nifty bounces without breaking below 11484. Positional Selling can be done after trading/closing below 11484 only, but entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after breakdown only. Trailing Stoploss for any existing longs is 11842.
For short term or Intraday, 11886-11842 is low risk buying range and minimum target will be 120-180 points if Nifty bounce from this range. Nifty can bounce from present levels also, but this condition can be identified during live market only.
We can think of selling after break below 11842, entry levels and stoploss can be calculated after breakdown only.
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