Nifty opened huge 600 points down at 8159 and declined further by more than 550 points to register day’s low 7583 and closed 1135 points down at 7610.
Yesterday, 8716-8883 was immediate resistance and Nifty was expected to decline towards 8178-7832 without breaking higher above 8883.
Nifty opened huge gap down and moved 8178 at opening only. Fresh resistance levels were update later but Nifty declined straightway without entering in resistance. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
We prepared last all time frame analysis report of Nifty in June 2018 and link to that analysis report is Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018. Now, we are analyzing all time frames again and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.
This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move.
It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.
Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.
23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.
Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.
Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.
So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.
This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart.
The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7583 or still in progress.
Wave (v) already achieved 61% projection after breaking below 7764 and next 100% projection is placed at 6283 which is a rare case.
23%-38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 8726-9434-10578 and same levels can act as short term resistance.
Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave (v) started from 10159 on separate 15 minutes chart.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 10159 which I marked as start of wave (v) on hourly chart.
It seems inner wave  completed from 10159-9018, wave  completed from 9108-9403  may be in completed at 7832, wave  completed at 10159 and wave  may be in progress.
Wave  already achieved minimum 38% projection and next 61%-100% projection is placed at 7444-6556 which may or may not be achieved. Projecting more than 100% (6556) is a rare case.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave  is placed at 7889-8079. So, 7889-8079 is immediate resistance and 8079 is immediate upside breakeven point.
Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 8079 and can decline further towards 7444-6556. But Nifty if breaks and stay above 8079 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards short term resistance 8726-9434.
For Long Term, Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now.
For short/medium term, 8726-9434-10578 can act as short term resistance. Further outlook can calculated after reaching these resistances step by step. On downside 7444-6284 is a major support, Nifty can pull back towards resistance 8726-9434 from this major support.
Very short term/Intraday, 7889-8079 is immediate resistance and 8079 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 8079 and can decline further towards 7444-6556.
But Nifty if breaks and stay above 8079 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards short term resistance 8726-9434.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Nifty is still volatile and fear is there in market. We personally like to trade safe and doing hedged trades only. So, we are just suggesting most probable low risk trading strategies to give ideas, traders who want to take risk or can manage trades can use these levels and conditions to plan their own trade.
Positional Buying or hedged trade can be planned if get Nifty in major support 7444-6556 with stoploss below 6284 expecting bounce of 1300-2000 points. It is a very big range, risk reward will be better if get Nifty near 6556.
For Intraday, Nifty if breaks and stay above 8079 for more than 15 minutes then later decline towards 8079-7889 can be used to buy Nifty with stoploss some points below 7889 expecting bounce towards short term resistance 8726-9434. Upside resistance 7889-8079 is calculate based on today’s low 7583, it will change if Nifty registers fresh low tomorrow.
Those who want to sell or holding any shorts can use stoploss above 8079 on 15 minutes closing basis. Nifty can decline towards 7444-6556 if fails to stay above 8079 for more than 15 minutes.
Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.