Nifty opened higher at 10614 and traded in narrow range of 70 points between 10562-10631 for rest of the day and then closed 55 points up at 10607.
Yesterday, 10519-10471 was immediate support and 10471 was immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty was in positive zone as long as trading above 10471 and could bounce towards 10819 if hold 10471 but staying below 10471 could result in decline towards 10267-10223.
Nifty opened higher above yesterday’s high so immediate support was changed. 10542-10490 was updated as fresh support after opening, Nifty declined till 10562 and then closed at 19607. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
We are analyzing Nifty on all time frames and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.
This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.
Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.
38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 8542 and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions. Breaking and staying below 8542 was indicating signs of major recession and 8542 but Nifty bounced back again.
Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.
So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart. Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems an impulse completed from 12430-7511 and same can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 10550 and same can act as major resistance. Nifty gave 02 closings above 10550.
From low 7511, it seems an (abc) wave completed from 7511-9889 but decline from 9889-8806 is also corrective (abc) and next wave bounced above 9889 again.
This (abc) bounce followed by (abc) decline followed by bounce is making the pattern complex. It can be progress of double zigzag correction with first (abc) cycle completed from 7511-9889, wave (X) may be completed from 9889-8806 and 2nd (abc) cycle may be in progress.
Within 2nd wave cycle, it seems wave (1), (2), (3), (4) is already completed till 9544 and wave (5) may be either completed at 10553 or still in progress.
Or it may be some other pattern going on which I am not able to identify yet.
Now, we need to have a separate look at progress of wave (5) started from 9544 to check its pattern.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after recent low 9544 which I marked at wave (5) on daily chart.
It seems wave (i) completed from 9544-9996, wave (ii) may be completed from 9996-9728 as Irregular Correction and wave (iii) may be completed at 10553, wave (iv) completed at 10196 and wave (v) may be either completed or still in progress.
Wave (v) achieved its minimum 38% projection after breaking above 10581 and next 61% projection is placed at 10819 which may or may not be achieved.
Now, we need to check the pattern of wave (v) stated from 10196 on lowest possible time frame.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 101096 which I marked as start of wave (v) on 30 minutes chart.
It seems inner wave  completed at 10355, wave  completed at 10223 as Irregular Correction and wave  may be in progress.
Within wave , it seems inner wave [i] completed at 10401, [ii] completed at 10267 and wave [iii] may be completed at 10598 or still in progress.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [iii] is placed at 10545-10491. So, 10545-10491 is immediate support and 10491 is immediate downside breakeven point.
Nifty is in positive zone for intraday as long as trading above 10491 and can bounce further towards 10819 if hold 10491. But break and stay below 10491 for more than 15 minutes can result in decline towards 10267-10223 again.
10550 is long/medium term resistance. Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 10550. We can think of any bigger reversal after 2-3 closes above 10550 only. Nifty gave 02 closings above 10550 but didn’t show any aggressive reaction yet.
10545-10491 is immediate support and 10491 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone for intraday as long as trading above 10491 and can bounce further towards 10819 if hold 10491.
But break and stay below 10491 for more than 15 minutes can result in decline towards 10267-10223 again.
Overall for short term, Nifty is a major resistance 10550 and closing around this resistance since couple of sessions, an aggressive reaction is expected soon from this major resistance. On the other hand, there is repeated negative RSI divergence of Daily and Hourly chart. So, either Nifty can give a good correction if this Negative Divergence holds or can bounce bigger from current levels if Negative Divergence fails.
A good move either side is expected soon and good move can be on either side. So, short term trading strategy must be to buy near downside breakeven point or sell after break below downside breakeven point. Hedged trade is recommended because pattern is complex. I am sharing my personal hedged trades to Live Update Subscribers.
Safe trading strategy is to Buy Nifty on decline in 10545-10491 range with stoploss some points below 10491 expecting bounce towards 10631-10819. This trade needs management with trailing stoploss because 10550 is major resistance.
Nifty if breaks and stay below 10491 for more than 15 minutes then trading strategy would be selling on rise in 10491-10545 range with stoploss some points above 10545 expecting 10267-10223 as downside targets.
Any other low risk trading opportunity will be updated during market hours if we identify any.
Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.