Nifty opened mild Gap Up today at 8548 but started declining after registering day’s high of 8556 and fell more than 100 points till end of the day before closing 63 points down at 8462. Yesterday I suggested that “Tomorrow, Nifty can be bought only if it trades above tomorrow’s opening price at 9:31 AM using Stoploss of day’s low till 9:30 otherwise Nifty can show lower levels till 8480-8435. Stoploss for Intraday Sell should be days high till 9:30 only if Nifty trades below opening price at 9:31 AM”.
Nifty was trading below opening price 8548 at 9:31 AM and didn’t break above high (registered till 9:30 am) again and also achieved levels of 8480-8435 on down side. Let’s have a look on latest charts. Today, I am showing wave counts after July low 8321 as previous counts are same as I explained in my 10 Aug 2015’s report. Read Long Term and Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty as on 10 Aug 2015.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 28 July low 8321. It seems an impulse is completed from 8321 to 8606 (or 8621 in case of Irregular Correction at top) as shown on chart. Wave 4 retraced more than 38% and wave 5 is extended (more than 61%).
So, generally we can see 38%-61% retracement of whole impulse started from 8321-8606 or 8621 which is almost achieved. Nifty already achieved 38% today after breaking below 8506 whereas 61% is placed at 8435 which is almost achieved.
Possibility to keep in mind: The fall from today’s top 8621 is sharp which sometimes is an inner wave (c) of Irregular Correction. In this case, Nifty can rise above 8621 again after completion of this wave (c). So, let’s have a close look on sharp decline from 8621.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after today’s high 8621. The move from top seems impulsive and by seeing the personality of decline, it seems one more down leg is pending. May be this impulse is within wave 5. If wave 4 completed at 8483 as Irregular Correction as shown on chart then, Nifty may decline till 8426-8391 which is 38%-61% projection for wave 5. 78% is placed at 8379 which is an unfilled gap shown on 1st chart.
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As long term point of view, there is still a possibility for new low below 7940 or a 38%-61% correction of whole bounce after 7940 in near future so conditions are not favorable for positional longs yet. Short term bounces can be there so trades on long term must be Intraday or short term only. (Explained in analysis report of 10 Aug 2015).
By seeing the latest charts, may be one more down side is pending which can show 8426-8391 or even 8379 if don’t break above 8483. So, 8483 should be stoploss for any existing or fresh shorts. We need to see latest pattern if break above 8483 for further trading decision.
Focus only on Intraday and Short term trades and always book part profit or trail stoploss as conditions are not clear for any positional buy or sell.