Nifty opened huge gap up today as expected and bounced sharply after opening to hit the high of 8292 in first attempt followed by range bound consolidation between 8292 -8252 till 2:30. But Nifty bounced 80 point more in last hours to register new day’s high of 8345. Finally Nifty closed 150 positive at 8331. Let’s see what latest charts are suggesting.
Read Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for the Week commencing 04 May 2015 to see previous wave counts.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 15th April high of 8844.
It seems an impulsive wave completed at 8145 started from 8844 followed by the start of bounce. Wave (5) of this downward impulse was extended, so we can see sharp bounce till 8363 – 8504 after extended 5th waves as I already mentioned in yesterday’s report. Nifty has shown a sharp bounce till 8345 today. (We generally see 100% and sharp retracement of extended wave 5).
On the other hand, 23%, 38% and 61% retracements of this impulse are placed at 8309, 8412 and 8576 respectively which is quite possible in short term. Nifty already achieved 23% after breaking 8309 and 38% retracement at 8412 is quite possible.
Let’s have a look on bounce from low 8145 on separate 5 minutes chart:
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty showing bounce after Thursday’s low 8145.
It seems wave 1 and 2 are completed and wave 3 in progress. Wave 3 seems somewhere within inner wave (v) which is expected to complete at higher levels tomorrow. Inner wave 5 already achieved its normal projection of 61% and 100% is placed at 8387. 100% projection till 8387 is also possible as two extended waves within wave 3 is abnormal scenario and closing pattern is also suggesting Gap up followed by more upside tomorrow.
We can see minimum 23%-38% retracement (decline) after completion of wave 3 at higher levels.
Nifty chart is suggesting a Gap up followed by some more upside tomorrow. So, immediate stop loss for existing longs should be 8309 which is just below the 38% retracement of last impulse started from 8262. Stoploss for positional longs should be 8277 till now which is 38% retracement of whole wave (3) started from 8167. These stop losses are calculated with respect to the latest high 8345 and will be reduced after seeing higher levels.
There can be 23%-38% retracement after completion of wave 3 at higher levels which can be identified only during live market hours after seeing progressing waves.
Follow strict stop loss as it is the protection against our mistake if we are wrong at identifying pattern.
Some subscribers are asking about the effect of Open Interest and FIIs/DIIs activity. You need not to care about any of these factors like OI, FIIs/DIIs activity or any news if you are following Elliott Wave Theory. These factors often changes with the price movement and time. Elliott Wave Theory will suggest everything in advance if we identify it correctly otherwise it suggests stop loss at every step. Just ride the waves with strict stop loss.
Note: The levels and stop loss suggested in this Elliott Wave analysis report of Nifty are valid till tomorrow only as there will be fresh wave counts and calculations after seeing further waves. So, take action accordingly as I will not post Elliott Wave Analysis report daily on my blog.
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