Nifty opened Gap down today and declined sharply till 8335 in first 30 minutes of trade but started rising gradually to touch my expected levels of 8426 which I mentioned in my yesterday’s analysis report of Nifty and also in my analysis report Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week 18 May – 22 May 2015 . But Nifty declined sharply from 8427 in last 45 minutes of trades to close 8 points negative at 8365.
Now, let’s have a look on latest charts to see further probabilities.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 07 May 2015’s low 7997 which I am expecting a start of impulse. I am showing the wave counts after 7997 only as previous counts as same as I explained in my Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 08 May 2015.
It seems an impulse completed from 7997 to 8332 followed by corrective decline as shown on chart. The upside impulse can be wave (A) and corrective decline which is in “abc” pattern can be wave (B) followed by the start of next impulse which may be wave (C).
Wave (C) already achieved 100% projection of wave (A) after hitting 8426 but structure of waves is not suggesting its completion yet. Structure of wave (C) is still suggesting it somewhere within wave 3 or 4. And we have a sharp fall at end of the day and such sharp fall is wave (c) of an Irregular Correction most of the time which is bullish in nature.
We still can’t say if confidently that wave (C) is already completed at 100% (8426) and there may be more upside still left. So, any trend reversal can be considered only if Nifty break below 8289 which is 38% retracement from the start of last correction (8384) as shown on charts. And Nifty have every possibility to show 8427-8505 again if I am right at identifying the pattern.
If the pattern after 12 May’s high 8332 which I am seeing as “abc” from 8332 to 8091 followed by “123” from 8091 to 8427 is actually “abc” followed by “abc” of Irregular Correction then we can see a sharp fall till 8091 in next sessions.
Nifty have achieved our expected target of 8426 but still the structure of wave (C) is not suggesting its completion. So, any trend reversal can be considered only if Nifty break below 8289 as explained above or if we see any other bearish pattern tomorrow.
Upper levels of 8427-8505 are well possible again and we need to watch out 8289 which should be stoploss for any positional longs. Any fresh trade can only be done during live market hours after identifying latest wave pattern on 5 minutes chart.