The budget week is over that witnessed some wild swings both side with sharp correction from 7806 to 7447 and finally closed at 7459 on Friday. Budget declared but charts still showing range bound volatility with both side moves. Let me explain everything on chart.

Some of my followers requested me to show wave counts of bigger picture from 5118 to 7806 and I tried my best to count it as accurately as possible. But I feel guilt that, I am not fully convince with this count at one point (3rd of wave three) because of steep wave but that is the only possible count I feel.

Let me show you bigger picture first: –

Nifty 14 jul dThis count shows Bigger wave 3 is in progress where 5th wave of bigger three is taking shape on Ending Diagonal  Triangle as of now with correction 4 is in progress or completed and 5th upward is still pending.

Let me show you 5th wave of bigger 3 closely: –

Nifty 14 14This is close-up of progressing wave 5 of bigger 3rd which started around 7220. Wave 1 ended at 7700 (5 wave move), wave 2 completed at 7442 (3 wave move), wave 3 completed at 7806 (5 wave move), wave 4 in progress or completed or may complete at 7440-7430 and wave 5 that may extend to 7850 and even 8000. If goes this way, the next correction will be steeper and bigger.

Now, let us see corrective 4 of 5th closely: –

nifty 14 julHere is the another story, move from 7806 to 7480 complete in set of 5 waves (impulsive) where as correction that should be in 3 wave move (ABC, 5-3-5) but move from 7480 to 7730 was in set of 5 wave (impulsive) that forced me to think that that was only A of correction where as B and C are still pending.

Move from 7730 downwards took possible shape of corrective B on Friday, may be it already ended at 7447, or may be complete at 7440-7430, or may be it extends to 7355. (There are lots of calculations behind these levels and I didn’t marked small wave counts on chart for the sake of clarity).

Here if my counts are correct (I am strict with it only), the C upwards can go all the ways to 138% of wave A or at or top of wave A. 138% placed at 7740. Level of 7555 is 61% of last impulsive downwards from 7623 taken from 7440.

My Trading Strategy

I am already long in Nifty Futures from 7500 and holding with the stop loss below 7430 (spot levels) as of now and targets will calculate after wave counts. I am holding position and can change my stop loss and targets anytime as I can count waves anytime and will act as per current position. I may not be able to update latest position, so please act accordingly.