Nifty opened higher at 11180, declined to register day’s low 11143 but bounce back by more than 130 points to register day’s high 11281 and finally closed 100 points up at 11257.
Yesterday, Overall Nifty was in negative zone with 11269-11368 as major resistance and 11368 as major upside breakeven point. 11170-11190 was immediate resistance and Nifty was expected to give one more decline without breaking above 11190. But if breaks 11190 could bounce further towards 11178-11300.
Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” on every 23%-38% bounce or in resistance. Buying of 11300 Put of 16 May was advised to buy at 137 with stoploss of 117 but stoploss was triggered. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 11856.
38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11370 and same is already broken. 11370 was short/medium term breakeven point and is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Nifty traded below 11370 for 2-3 session and warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks, Nifty achieved 11125 till now.
The pattern formed may be Irregular Correction at top or wave 5 may be progressing as ED.
Now, let’s analyse the decline started from 11856 to check its pattern and internal wave counts.
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856 which I marked as end of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.
It seems, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 11856-11588, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11588-11789 as irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11269-11368. So, 11269-11368 is short/medium term resistance and 11368 is major upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11368 for a day can result in upside reversal otherwise cautions for further decline towards 10585-10004 are there.
Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11796-11625, (ii) may be completed from 11625-11789 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (iii) may be completed at 11108 and wave (iv) may be in progress.
Now, let’s have a separate look at the pattern of wave (iv) lowest possible time frame.
This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11108 which I marked as start of wave (iv) on hourly chart.
It seems wave (a) completed from 11108-11294, wave (b) may be completed from 11294-11137 [pattern is not clear] and wave (c) may be in progress.
Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c) is placed at 11323-11366 and same is the normal completion range for wave (c).
Within wave (c), it seems inner wave (i), (ii) is completed and (iii) may be in progress. There are abnormal projections and retracements within wave (c).
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c) is placed at 11247-11225. So, 11247-11225 is immediate support and 11225 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks below 11225 can result in further decline towards 11108-11000 otherwise Nifty can bounce further towards 11323-11366.
For Short/Medium Term: – There is no change in short/medium term outlook. Major support 11370 is broken and internal pattern also indicating further fall. So, overall conditions are warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks. 11323-11368 is fresh major resistance and we can think of major reversal after break above 11368 only.
For Intraday/Very Short Term, 11247-11225 is immediate support and 11225 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks below 11225 can result in further decline towards 11108-11000 otherwise Nifty can bounce further towards 11323-11366.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Trading Points of View:
Positional selling can be planned in 11323-11368 range for one more decline of 250-400 points or towards 10585-10004. We can think of positional buying only if Nifty breaks and stay above 11368 for complete session.
For Intraday, 11247-11225 is low risk buying range and selling can be done if Nifty stay below 11225 for 10 minutes.
Overall, I will look for Selling Nifty either in 11323-11368 range or after break below 11225. I will avoid buying right now.
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