Nifty opened lower at 9603 and bounced after opening to register day’s high 9634 but failed to sustain at higher levels and decline back to register day’s low 9589 before closing 5 points down at 9616.
Yesterday, Nifty was expected to bounce towards 9661-9728 at least in near term and 9581 was short term reversal or breakeven point. And trading strategy was “Buying on Dips” until Nifty achieves 9661 and suggested buying Nifty on decline in 9590-9581 range with exact stoploss of 9579 expecting 9661-9728 as minimum targets. Nifty declined till 9589 (in entry range) and bounced back to close at 9616. Let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
Today I am analyzing bounce from 24 May 2017 low 9341 because previous wave counts are explained in my “All time Frame” report Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty using All Time Frames
This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from 9341 which I am expecting as start of new impulse.
Again there is no change in wave counts, the sharp bounce started from 9341 is impulsive and it seems wave (1), (2), (3), (4) is completed and last wave (5) may be in progress from 9555. Wave (3) may be completed at 9621.
Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 9661-9728. So, wave (5) needs to achieve minimum 9661 which further can extend towards 9728.
If we look at the progress of wave (5) then there is formation of inner wave (i) and (ii) at top followed by consolidation. Wave (ii) looks like Irregular correction and end of wave (ii) is 9581.
Wave (iii) of (5) is slower but I am not able to identify any other pattern. So, we must go with same pattern which I had explained on the chart as long as Nifty is trading above 9581.
So, end of wave (ii) of (5) is 9581 which can use as stoploss for longs.
Again, there is no major change in wave counts and Nifty still have possibility of bit higher levels. Nifty can bounce minimum till 9661-9728 range and 9579 (2 points below 9581) must be the stoploss for all longs.
We need to look at pattern and revise wave counts if Nifty breaks below 9581 without breaking above 9661.
Trading Point of View:
Trading strategy must be to “Buy on Dips” unless Nifty achieves 9661 and 9581 can be referred as reversal point or stoploss for longs. So,
Nifty longs taken today in 9590-9581 range today (as suggested yesterday) can be hold with exact stoploss of 9579 expecting same targets 9661-9728. Exit trade if Nifty even touches 9589.
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