Nifty Analysis and Trading Strategies for Monday, 04 May 2020

Nifty Analysis, outlook and trading strategies with important levels based on Elliott Wave Theory for Monday, 03 May 2020

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Nifty opened higher at 9753, registered low 9731 and bounced further to register day’s high 9899 and closed 306 points up at 9859.

Thursday, Nifty was in short term resistance 9582-9942 and 9234-9009 was short term support. 9518-9469 was immediate/intraday support and Nifty was in positive zone for Intraday as long as trading above 9469.

Nifty opened gap up at 9753 and bounced further till 9889, so intraday as well short term support was changed. Fresh support and important levels were updated during market hours but Nifty traded above immediate support for whole day. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

Table of Contents

Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Monthly Chart

Nifty opened higher at 9753, registered low 9731 and bounced further to register day’s high 9899 and closed 306 points up at 9859. Thursday, Nifty was in short term resistance 9582-9942 and 9234-9009 was short term support. 9518-9469 was immediate/intraday support and Nifty was in positive zone for Intraday as long as trading above 9469. Nifty opened gap up at 9753 and bounced further till 9889, so intraday as well short term support was changed. Fresh support and important levels were updated during market hours but Nifty traded above immediate support for whole day. Now, let’s have fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Monthly Chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.

23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.

Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.

Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.

So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.

Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart
Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Daily Chart

This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart.

The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7511.

The impulse completed from 12430-7511 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 23%-38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 8671-9390-10550 and same levels can act as resistance. Nifty breached 9390 after facing resistance of 2 weeks and registered high 9889.

Now, let’s analyze the bounce after low 7511 to check its pattern and to calculate important levels.

Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Hourly Chart

Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on Hourly Chart
Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty on Hourly Chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 7511 which I am analysing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 7511-9038, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 9038-8055 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.  Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 9582-9942, Nifty entered in this range and registered high 9889. This 9582-9942 range can act as short term resistance.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii) completed till 9390, (iv) may be completed at 8909 and wave (v) may be in progress. Wave (v) achieved minimum 38%-61% projection and is an extended wave.

23%-38% retracement of progress wave (c or 3) is placed at 9456-9188. So, 9456-9188 is short term support and 9188 is short term downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 9188 and has possibility to bounce further but it is already in short term resistance.

Nifty if breaks and stay below 9188 can result in decline towards 8055-7511 again.

Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (v) of (c or 3) on separate lowest time frame.

Intraday Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart

Intraday Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart
Intraday Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on 15 Minutes Chart

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 8909 which I marked as start of wave (v) of (c or 3) on hourly chart.

It seems wave [a or 1] completed from 8909-9343, wave [b or 2] completed from 9343-9142 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems inner wave [i] completed from 9142-9377, wave [ii] may be completed from 9377-9260 and wave [iii] may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [c or 3] is placed at 9712-9603. So, 9712-9603 is immediate support and 9603 is immediate downside breakeven point.

Nifty is in positive zone for intraday as long as trading above 9603 and has possibility to bounce further. But break and stay below 9603 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 9142-8909.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for 04 May 2020, Monday

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Long Term

Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now. We can be confident about major upside reversal after staying above 10027 only.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Medium and Short Term

9582-9942 is can act as short term resistance whereas 9456-9188 is short term support and 9188 short term downside breakeven point. An hourly candle closed below 9188 can result in bigger downside reversal towards 8055-7511.

Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for Intraday

9712-9603 is immediate support and 9603 is immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty is in positive zone for intraday as long as trading above 9603 and has possibility to bounce further.

But break and stay below 9603 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 9142-8909

Nifty Trading Strategies for Monday, 04 May 2020

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Nifty is in short term resistance 9582-9942 but internal pattern is not clear and resistance range is big. So, it is safe to trade based on internal/intraday levels as long as this resistance is intact as downside breakeven point 9188 is not broken. Low risk trading strategies are: –

Nifty if breaks and stay below 9188 for more than 15 minutes then later bounce towards 9188-9456 can be used to sell Nifty with stoploss some points above 9456 expecting decline towards 8055-7511 in coming days.

Nifty if breaks and stay below 9603 for more than 15 minutes then later bounce towards 9603-9712 can be used to sell Nifty with stoploss some points above 9712 expecting 9142-8909 as downside targets.

Those who wants to buy can buy Nifty on decline in 9712-9603 range with stoploss some points below 9603 for target of recent high. We don’t have confident upside target as Nifty is in short term resistance, we can just carry trade with trailing stoploss.

Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

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