Today I am covering latest all time frame wave counts of nifty to show whole bigger EW cycle on demand of my students and subscribers. I am showing my wave counts of Nifty after 2002 which also include bigger crash of Nifty in 2008. I am not explaining the wave counts with detail explanation but showing counts and wave’s structure on latest chart as on 23 Jan 2015. The detailed explanation of these counts you can read at Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for All time Frames Dated 18 Oct 2014
Lets start with the bigger picture first:
This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty showing move after 2002. This chart and wave counts shows that Nifty completed a bigger wave’s cycle (impulse) in 2008 followed by a biggest correction of more than 61%. The completion of previous bigger wave’s cycle now became the start of new biggest wave’s cycle that have long way to go. The probable counts shows that Nifty is somewhere in inner most smallest wave 3 and there is long wave to go as represented on next (Chart 2). Next chart is imaginary structure of Nifty move expected in coming months/years.
Let us move to the daily chart to see the move after 5118 which I am expecting the start of 2 folds inner wave 3:
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty showing move after Aug 2013 low of 5118 which I am expecting as a start of lower degree inner wave 3 (shown on Chart 1). It seems this lower degree wave 3 is also in its inner wave (3). Inner wave’s (1) and (2) completed at 6343 and 5933 respectively and next wave (3) projected 238% till now and 261% placed at 9140.
We need to see and calculate the wave (3) started from 5933 closely to identify if it is already completed or yet to completed. There is Ending Diagonal like structure at the stop which is suggesting that end of (3) is near or is already completed. Let us see move after 5933 on daily chart again as hourly chart doesn’t cover it.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 5933 which I am expecting as start of inner most wave 3 shown on (Chart 3). It seems this wave is somewhere near the end or is already completed. Inner wave (3) of this wave is just above 100% of 1 and is steepest move of all times. Nifty moved more than 1200 points in just 6 session when Narender Modi became prime minister. It is inner most wave 3 of whole big cycle and its personality and nature is justifying the same.
Inner wave 5 of this big wave is progressing as Ending Diagonal Triangle which is already completed or about to completed. Wave 5 projected more than 100% after breaking 8748 which is not surprising after smaller wave 3 which projected just 100%. Let take a closer looks at the move after 7118 to see this wave 5 as Ending Diagonal closely.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 7118 which I am expecting as start of inner wave 5 as Ending Diagonal Triangle shown on (Chart 4). Ending Diagonal Triangle have internal structure of (3-3-3-3-3) or (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc) where waves 1, 3 and 5 must be Simple Zigzag (abc) and wave 2 and 4 can be any of Simple Zigzag or other complex correction.
Wave 3 of this ED was projected just 110% so there were possibilities for wave 5 to achieve minimum 61% projection which was placed at 8380. Wave 5 of this ED projected more than 100% after breaking 8786 and 123% placed at 9036. It is not convincing to assume completion of this ED at previous top 8626 as wave 5 of ED must be 3 waves move (abc) but the move from 7724-8626 looks like impulsive (5 waves) rater than 3 waves (abc). And Nifty didn’t break lower lane of this ED yet. The move from 7724-8626 may be wave (a) of 5 followed by failure wave (b) from 8626-8066 and there may be the start of last wave (c) of 5 from 8066. Let me show you the whole move after 7724 (start of wave 5 of ED) closely on hourly chart.
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty showing move after 7724 which I am expecting as start of wave (5) of Ending Diagonal shown on (Chart 5). As we can see, the move from 7724-8626 looks like impulsive rather than (abc). So it can be taken as inner wave (a) of 5 followed by failure wave (b) from 8626-8066. I am calling it failure wave (b) because inner wave ‘c’ of (b) failed to break the end point of (a) is less than 61% of (a).
Note: This report is for training and learning purpose. Please read that books and compare the studies with this report. For the detailed explanation of these counts read: Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty for All time Frames Dated 18 Oct 2014