Nifty opened gap down today at 7865 and fell sharply till 7787 within a minute of opening from where it bounced almost 140 points to touch 7929. Nifty failed to sustain at higher levels and started declining gradually in second half to register new low for the day before closing 88 points down at 7791.
Nifty moved exactly as I expected yesterday. First it declined within 7808-7754 range followed by bounce above 7900 and then again fell from 7900-8000 range. A trader with satisfactory knowledge of EWT could have gained reasonable profits. Let’s have a look on latest charts now.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after July 2015 high 8655. There is no change in wave counts as the move from 8655-8321-8621 can be waves (A or 1) or (B or 2) and (C or 3) may be started from 8621.
Within wave (C or 3), wave (1), (2) and (3) are completed as shown on charts and whereas (4) may be in progress or completed today at 7929. Wave (4) already achieved 23% retracement till now whereas 38% is placed at 7996. So, there are possibilities for Nifty to take a dip below 7667 again to complete wave (5) after completing wave at higher levels. So, there are cautions for a dip below 7667 again at higher levels in 7900-8000 range. Let’s move to 5 minutes chart to read today’s intraday movement for further clarification.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering Intraday move of 25 Aug 2015.
There is some change in previous counts. Yesterday we assumed that an impulse (a) may be completed at 7896 followed by (b) down and (c) upwards. But the calculations on present chart are suggesting another possibility. May be this impulse is completed at 7929 today rather than 7896 yesterday as the second rise is just 61% which is suggesting more possibilities for wave 5 rather than (c).
If we see the fall after 7929 then decline h 3 wave structure till now and retraced near 61% retracement. Even if we calculate inner waves of decline from 7929, wave (C or 3) retraced just 100% of (A or 1). So, we can’t ignore the possibility of (a) completed from 7667-7929, (b) may b started from 7929 and (c) may go above 7929 before further fall. It is just a possibility seeing chart structure we should not ignore.On the other hand on first 30 minutes chart, the retracement after decline from 8530 is already more than 23%, so may be wave 4 already completed at 7929 as Irregular Correction and (5) has started.
Conclusion only for subscribers/clients…
Keep the positions very light and reduce your trading quantity as high volatility is expected in coming sessions. Small stop losses may trigger in now times so small traders can avoid trading to be safe.