Nifty opened higher at 10329 and bounced further to register day’s high 10358 but declined sharply by more than 40 points before closing to register day’s low 10315 and finally closed 28 points up at 10326.
Yesterday, bounce above 10343 was expected with 10261 as stoploss. I didn’t suggest any exact trade because minimum upside target was just 40 points away and there was no indication of any big one sided move. Nifty achieved 10343 as expected and then declined back after registering 10358. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
Today I am covering bounce from 28 Sep 2017 low 9687 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 16 Oct 2017 Onward
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce from low 9687 which I marked as start of new upside impulse. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
Generally, it seems wave (1) completed from 9786-9945, (2) completed from 9945-9881, wave (3) may be in completed from 9881-10490, wave (4) may completed at 10094 and wave (5) may be in progress.
Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 10400-10590 but end of wave (3) is 10490. So, 10490-10590 is minimum targets range for wave (5).
But wave (4) retraced 100 points deeper than 38%, so there are cautions. So, first we need to wait for target of 10344 and further outlook will be calculated later. 10344 is already achieved on Friday.
Now, let’s have a deeper look at the pattern of wave (4) started from 10490-10094 on separate 15 minutes chart.
This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 10490 which I am expecting as start of wave (4) on hourly chart. This is again the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems wave (A) completed from 10490-10266, (B) completed from 10266-10344 and wave (C) completed from 10344-10094. Wave (C) achieved normal 100%-123% projection and pattern also seems completed. So, pattern is indicating that wave (4) is completed from 10490-10094 as Simple Zigzag Correction.
But if by chance, I am wrong at identifying the pattern and wave (4) is not completed then 61% retacement of whole decline (from 10490-10094) is placed at 10338 which is already achieved.
Now, we need to analyze the progress of expected wave (5) started from 10094 on 5 minute chart for deeper analysis.
This is again 15 minute chart covering bounce from 10094 which I am expecting as start of wave (5).
There is no major change in wave counts, it seems wave (1 or a) completed at 10211, wave (2 or 3) completed at 10184 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.
38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 10291 which is the immediate breakeven point on downside below which we can think of any short term reversal.
And when we look at inner waves of (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is already completed and wave (v) may be in progress, wave (iv) retraced deeper then 38%. Wave (v) almost achieved normal 61% projection placed at 10359 and next 100% projection is placed at 10420 which is a rare possibility.
And within inner wave (v) of (c or 3), it seems wave 1, 2, 3 is already completed and 4 or 5 may be in progress.
Overall, wave (c or 3) may complete somewhere above 10359, after which a correction/decline of 40-70 points is expected [23%-38% retracement of wave (c or 3)].
Again, there is no major change in wave counts on chart. A high above 10343 is registered as expected yesterday followed by some correction.
Now, Nifty again have possibility to registered on more high above 10358 but not much higher above 10358 [10359 is 61% projection of inner wave (v) of (c or 3)]. Normally wave (c or 3) can complete somewhere in 10358-10420 range but 10420 is rare possibility, so we must keep 10358 as minimum target and there is possibility of approx. 40-70 points correction from 10358-10420.
10291 is fresh breakeven point on downside below which we can think of any reversal and same can be used as stoploss for any longs.
Overall, there is a possibility of one more high above 10358 without breaking lower below 10291 but there are further cautions for 40-70 points decline from 10358-10420.
Trading Point of View:
Again, I am not suggesting any exact trade because minimum target is just 35-40 points away and there is no indication of any one sided big move, although wave pattern is indicating sideways move. Nifty is trading at 10326, minimum target is 10358 and there are cautions for decline of 40-70 points again after achieving 10358, thus risk reward is not good for trade. I will suggest exact trade only when there is possibility for one sided move with good risk reward.
Experienced traders can trade by their own based on conditions and outlook explained above if getting good opportunity. Be cautious while trading options because short term wave pattern is indicating sideways move.
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