Nifty opened a good gap up on Tuesday at 7895 and bounced sharply till 7925 but declined below opening price within 15 minutes and further fell 250 points from high in next 02 hours to touch 7667 which was 261% projection for wave (3) shown in last report. Nifty bounced sharply by 240 points again in second half after registering low of 7667 before closing 71 points up at 7880.
In last report I expected a smart bounce of at least 23% in 1-2 sessions from low which happened yesterday but it happened in a single day. I also suggested buying only if Nifty trades above opening price after 12:30 for target of 23% from low as I was expecting a weak first half followed by recovery in second half. But Nifty opened gap up and then declined to make low but even 23% bounce from low was below Tuesday’s opening price. I expected a bounce but it is impossible to draw a clear picture in advance and those who know EWT can identify it only during live market hours by seeing progressive waves. Let’s have a look on latest charts.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after July 2015 high 8655. The move from 8655-8321-8621 can be waves (A or 1) or (B or 2) and (C or 3) may be started from 8621.
Within wave (C or 3), wave (1), (2) and (3) are completed as shown on charts and whereas (4) may be in progress. Wave (4) achieved more than 23% retracement till now whereas 38% is placed at 7996. So, there are possibilities for Nifty to take a dip below 7667 again to complete wave (5) after completing wave at higher levels. So, there are cautions for a dip below 7667 again at higher levels in 7900-8000 range. Let’s move to 5 minutes chart to read Tuesday’s intraday movement.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering Intraday move of 25 Aug 2015. It seems an downside impulse completed from 7925-7667 with highly extended 5th wave which retraced 100% sharply with same speed.
Now, the move from 7667-7895 also seems an impulse which can be wave (a) of (4) until and unless there is any Irregular correction at bottom. So, if this upside impulse is wave (a) then wave (b) downwards and (c) upwards may be pending.
38% and 61% retracement of wave (a) is placed at 8808 and 7754 respectively where (b) may complete followed by (c) upwards above 7900. Or there can be bounce from present levels too as there is Irregular Correction type of pattern at top as I marked.
Overall, there is a caution at higher levels for a dip below 7667 again although a short term bounce can be expected. Cautions for decline are at 7900-8000 range which is 23-38% retracement of previous wave (3).
Conclusion and Trading Strategy is only for subscribers…
Keep the positions very light and reduce your trading quantity as high volatility is expected in coming sessions. Small stop losses may trigger in now times so small traders can avoid trading to be safe.