Nifty opened gap up yesterday at 8205 but failed to sustain at higher levels and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined by 120 points from 8210-8089 before closing 3 points up at 8111.
Yesterday, Selling was suggested on bounce towards 8196-8230 with stoploss of 8237 expecting targets below 8093. Nifty opened gap up in 8196-8230 range to complete “Irregular Correction” and then decline below 8093. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is continuation of my last analysis reports Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for 16 Nov 2016 – Possibility of Irregular Correction to show the status of expected Irregular Correction. and covering wave counts from 09 Nov 2016 low 8002.
This is 5 minutes chart of Nifty covering move from 9 Nov 2016 low 8002.
The bounce from 8002-8348 looks impulsive and can be wave (A), Nifty covered these 346 points in just 20 minutes, next decline from 8348-8117 can be wave (B) which retraced exactly 50% and next wave (C) may be completed from 8177-8598 as shown on chart.
This (abc) wave from 8002-8598 may be “wave (x) of Complex Correction”, or “part of Irregular Correction” or “inner wave (i) of Ending Diagonal Triangle”.
And within, decline from 8598, It seems wave (a or 1) is completed from 8598-8354, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 8354-8398 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 8398 which projected exactly 123%.
Further within wave (c or 3) started from 8398, it seems inner waves (i), (ii) (iii) and (iv) are completed till 8210 and next wave (v) is in progress. Wave (iv) completed as “Irregular Correction” as expected in last report Elliott Wave Counts of Nifty for 16 Nov 2016 – Possibility of Irregular Correction
Please read the marking of “Irregular Correction” carefully and compare with explanation in article Irregular Correction of Elliott Wave Theory Explained by Deepak Kumar for better understanding.
Again wave (v) achieved its exact minimum 38% projection at 8093 but the pattern doesn’t seem completed. The pattern of the decline from 8210-8089 looks like a three waves move (abc) whereas wave (v) can either be impulse of Ending Diagonal.
So, Nifty needs to decline more to complete wave (v) of (c or 3) and next 61%-100% projection for wave (v) is placed at 8042-7939. Otherwise, nifty bouncing straightway towards 8193 may again form an Irregular Correction to decline again below 8089.
Let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (v) of (c or 3) for more clarity.
This is again 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from 16 Nov 2016 high 8210 which I am expecting as progress of wave (v) of (c or 3).
It seems an impulse completed from 8210-8100 as wave (A or 1), next bounce from 8100-8193 could be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 8193. Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 8083-8057 where as 161% projection is placed at 8015.
And within wave (c or 3), it seems wave (i) may be completed from 8193, (ii) may be completed from 8144-8169 as “Irregular Correction” and wave (iii) may be in progress.
38% retracement of wave (iii) is placed at 8119 above which we can think of any very short term reversal. Breaking above 8119 can open the possibility of further bounce till 8193-8210 and can again form an Irregular Correction for wave (B or 2) as pattern doesn’t seems completed for wave (C or 3).
There is no conclusion for medium term as there is lack of confidence in clarity of waves of whole decline started from 8698. But for short term, 8210 is the point above which we can think of any reversal and there is still a possibility of more decline.
For Intraday, 8119 is the point above which we can expect a bounce towards 8193-8210 and again there are cautions in between 8193-8210 for further decline for new low. So, we need to keep these conditions in mind when preparing next trading strategy.
For Trading Point of View:
I am not posting any trading strategies as this analysis report is posted just for showing completion of expected Irregular Correction. This reports is future reference for learners and trading strategies are mentioned in analysis report sent to clients by email.
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