Nifty opened higher at 11964, bounced further to register high 11981 but failed to sustain at higher levels and declined back sharply by more than 180 points to resister day’s low 11798 before closing 135 points down at 11811.
Yesterday, 11932-11909 was immediate support and 11909 was immediate downside breakeven point. Nifty was expected to decline towards 11814-11775 if breaks and stay below 11909 for 15 minutes.
Downside breakeven point was changed to 11917 after registering high 11981 and Nifty was expected to decline towards 11814-11775 if trades below 11917 for 15 minutes (update sent by WhatsApp). Nifty traded below 11917 for 15 minutes and then declined to register 11798 but we missed the trade. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Wave ‘5’ achieved minimum projections after breaking above 11761 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 12689 which may or may not be achieved. Wave 5 achieved 12103 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.
It seems, inner wave (1) of 5 completed from 10004-10985, wave (2) may be completed from 10985-10585 Double Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be completed from 10585-12103 and wave (4) may be in progress.
23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 11744-11523. So 11744-11523 is major support and 11523 is major downside breakeven/trend reversal point.
Wave (3) is less than 161% (not extended), so wave (5) needs to be extended (project more than 61%). Minimum 61% projection for wave (5) would be 1297 points.
Overall, 11523 is major trend reversal point. Nifty can bounce by 1297 points without breaking below 11523 but if it manages to break and stay below 11523 for complete sessions can turn the major pattern into Irregular Correction and can result in further fall towards 10585-10004.
Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (4) started from 12103 on separate lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.
This is hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after all time high 12103 which I marked as start of wave (4) on daily chart.
There is possibility for this decline to be Double/Triple Zigzag correction with first (abc) cycle completed from 12013-11769, wave (X1) completed from 11769-12000, 2nd (abc) cycle completed from 12000-11625. Now, the bounce after 11625 can be new Impulse for new high or progress of wave (X2).
Now, we have same 2 conditions,
- If wave (X2) completed from 11625-11981 as Double Zigzag Correction then we can see one more downside (abc) wave for low below 11625 to complete Triple Zigzag. But there is lack of confidence because wave (X2) reached very closer to (X1) which is possible but rare.
- On the other hand, if this is the case then there will be Complex Correction within Complex Correction, wave (X2) of Triple Zigzag will also be Double Zigzag (as marked on the chart).
- If wave (4) already completed at 11625 as Double Zigzag Correction then Nifty need to bounce sharply for new life time high above 12103. Wave counts for this possibility are marked on next 30 minutes chart.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11625. There is also a possibility that new upside wave for new life high is started from 11625 and probable wave counts for this possibility are explained on the chart.
It is also possible that wave (A or 1) completed from 11625-11843, wave (B or 2) completed from 11843-11651 and wave (C or 3) is in progress.
Within wave (C or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii) completed till 11911 and wave (iv) may be progress as Irregular Correction with inner wave (a) of (iv) completed from 11911-11775, Irregular wave (b) completed from 11775-11981 and wave (c) may be in progress.
Wave (c) of Irregular Correction can complete somewhere near 11775 [near end of wave (a)] followed by bounce above 11981 again.
Again there is lack of confidence in these wave counts because (iv) of (C or 3) already retraced deeper than 38%.
Now, let’s have a separate look at decline started from Friday’s high 11981 to check its pattern.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11981 which I am analysing independently.
It seems wave (1) completed from 11981-11881, wave (2) may be completed from 11881-11943 and wave (3) may be in progress. 38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 11853.
Within wave (3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed and (v) may be in progress from 11880. Wave (v) already achieved its minimum requirement after touching 11798 whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 11790-11735 which may or may not be achieved.
There is lack of confidence in these wave counts because inner wave (v) of (1) projected more than 123% which is possible but rare. On the other hand, wave (v) became highly extended after projecting more than 123% but didn’t retrace 100%.
Other possibility, may be wave (1) completed from 11981-11927, (2) may be completed from 11927-11953 and (3) may be in progress. Within wave (3), inner wave (i) completed from 11953-11881, (ii) completed from 11881-11943 and (iii) may be in progress (marked with brown counts).
But again there is lack of confidence because inner wave (i) of major (3) is bigger than major wave (1). It is also possible but rare.
Overall there are 02 possibilities on this chart but there is lack of confidence in both the possibilities.
Overall, 11523 is major trend reversal point and can either bounce by 1297 points without breaking below 11523 but if it manages to break and stay below 11523 for complete sessions can turn the major pattern into Irregular Correction and can result in further fall towards 10585-10004.
Internal Pattern of decline after 12103 is carrying the personality of Complex Correction and indicating bounce towards new life time high either from present levels or after registering one more low below 11625.
For short term/Intraday, Nifty is trapped in multiple possibilities and I am unable to calculate exact move. We have multiple possibilities on Hourly, 30 Minutes and 5 minutes chart and there is lack of confidence on all the wave counts. There are repeated complex corrections on Hourly and 30 Minutes chart, whereas there are abnormal projections/retracements on 5 minutes chart (explained on charts).
I can just conclude that Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 11853 and we can think of any positivity if Nifty breaks above 11853. Here also we need to check pattern after break above 11853 for confirmation. Otherwise we can get further hints after Nifty achieving 11775.
Overall, we need to wait for further move to get clarity for short term.
Trading Points of View:
The overall pattern is indicating bounce above 12103 in coming days/weeks either from present levels or from 11625-11523 range. So, positional trading strategy is Buying On Dips using stoploss below 11523 expecting targets above 12103.
For Intraday or Very Short Term, there is no advance trading strategy because patterns have multiple confusions. We need to wait for clarity of pattern for short term trade.
We can just trade intraday for small swings if gets opportunities based on small internal patterns. I will observe market during trading hours and will update about same to all my “Live Update” Subscribers. Further, I will update about formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.