Nifty opened Gap up today at 8330 as expected but failed to sustain at higher levels and also break below 8294 within 10 minutes after opening to negate the pattern I shown on yesterday’s chart. Nifty declined almost 100 points from previous close and closed today with 91 points loss at 8213 after registering low of 8202.
I am struggling with the counts from last 3 session so showing the waves counts from 15th April high of 8844. Let’s have a look on chart.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 15th April high of 8844.
It seems an impulsive wave is in progress from 8844 where wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 are completed and 5 is in progress. There is some confusion in end of wave 3, I marked end of wave 3 at 8286 but may be it completed before that and 8286 is part of Irregular correction for wave 4. This is the only confusion which is resulting in failure because the sharp move from 8286 to 8504 seems like complete impulse but wave 4 can never be an impulse. So that sharp impulse may be wave (c) of 4 which completed as Irregular Correction.
Wave 5 already achieved its minimum projection of 38% where as 61% is placed at 8159 which may or may not be achieved. Wave 5 also seems within wave (v) as shown on charts.
Some subscribers are asking me for the status of expected Triple Zigzag. Let me show on chart.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering move after Jan 2015 high of 8996.
The most probable structure in case of Triple Zigzag is shown on chart. May be wave (X2) is already completed at 8844 and last “abc” cycle is in progress. Nifty should not break below lower line of Triangle to keep this pattern valid and completion of Triple Zigzag can only be confirmed after breaking above upper line.
But it is risky to predict anything in advance. So it is just a possibility to keep in mind as charts will show when it really happen. Last or 3rd “abc” cycle of Triple Zigzag have tendency to turn maximum technical indicators opposite, being highly volatile and to confuse the majority before completion. Let me show you an example:
This is Triple Zigzag Correction which completed in Oct 2014. Just observe the Structure and Volatility of waves with last “abc” cycle. I failed many times in identifying waves within this Triple Zigzag but finally caught a great move of 500 points after identifying its completion. This chart is explained in Oct report, Nifty can Show 8380 before breaking below 7723.
That is the reason I suggested some day before to save money for next bull rally in report: Save Money for Next Bull Rally of 1200-1800 points in Nifty.
So, restrict yourself to light and short term trading only till you identify any clear pattern for positional trade.
Chart is suggesting the completion or downward impulse is near but Nifty closed at extreme low warning more lower levels. We can see 38% to 61% bounce after completion of downward impulse started from 8844 but it is difficult to suggest exact bottom yet. 61% of wave 5 of this impulse is placed at 8159 and lower line of expected Triple Zigzag is also in 8140-8160 range.