Nifty opened higher at 11748, declined by 90 points to register day’s low 11658 but bounced back again by 200 points to register day’s high 11859 and finally closed 187 points up at 11844.
Friday, overall 11697-11484 for major support and 11484 for major downside trend reversal point. 11707 was immediate upside breakeven point and Nifty was expected to bounce towards 11859-12041 if breaks and stay above 11707.
Nifty broke 11707 at opening only, declined till 11658 after opening and then bounced to touch 11859. Intraday updates were sent by WhatsApp broadcast during live market hours. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Wave ‘5’ achieved minimum projections after breaking above 11761 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 12689 which may or may not be achieved. Wave 5 achieved 12041 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems, inner wave (1) of 5 completed from 10004-10985, wave (2) may be completed from 10985-10585 Double Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be completed from 10585-11856.
Wave (3) is less than 161%, thus not extended. So, wave (5) needs to be extended.
23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 11697-11484. So, 11697-11484 is major support and 11484 is major trend reversal point on downside. Nifty can bounce minimum 778-1258 points from 11697-11484 range but if it breaks and stay below 11484 can result in big decline towards 10585-10004 again.
Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (4) on lowest possible time frame.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline from all time high 12041 which I marked as start of wave (4) on daily chart.
It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 12041-11779, wave (b or 2) may be in progress as big Irregular correction with inner wave (a) completed from 11779-11859, irregular wave (b) completed from 11859-11614 and wave (c) may be in progress.
38%-61%-78 retracement of wave (a or 1) is placed at 11879-11940-11984.
Within wave (c) of (b or 2), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) completed and (v) may be in progress. Wave (v) projected minimum 38% and next 61%-100% projection is placed at 11898-11981. 100% projection for wave (v) of (c) is a rare case.
23%-38% retracement of the whole bounce after wave (ii) [11658-11859] is placed at 11811-11782. So, 11811-11782 is immediate support and 11782 is immediate downside breakeven point. We can think of any downside reversal after break below 11782 only.
For Short/Medium Term: – There is no change in overall outlook, same 11697-11484 is major support and 11484 is major trend reversal point on downside and overall conditions are indicating minimum 778-1258 points bounce from 11697-11484 range. But if Nifty breaks and stay below 11484 can result in big decline towards 10585-10004 again.
Nifty already bounce by about 150 points this major support, we need to concentrate on internal pattern for further calculations.
For Intraday or Very Short Term: 11811-11782 is immediate support and 11782 is immediate downside breakeven point. We can think of any downside reversal after break below 11782 only. Staying below 11782 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 11658-11614.
11940-11984 is immediate resistance and we can expect a small or big decline or consolidation before breaking higher above 11984.
There is Irregular Correction on 5 minutes chart which is not a simple pattern and there is always a hesitation when there is Irregular Correction or Complex Correction. So, assume the trend a positive as long as Nifty is trading above 11782 and think of downside reversal after break below 11782 only.
Trading Points of View:
11614-11484 is low risk Buying Range for positional longs and targets will be minimum 778-1258 points if Nifty bounces without breaking below 11484. Positional Selling can be done after trading/closing below 11484 only, but entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after breakdown only.
For short term or Intraday, we can think of selling after break below 11782 but entry levels and stoploss can be calculated after breakdown only. 11814-11782 is low risk buying range but minimum upside target for current wave is already achieved, so buying can be done only if we identify a clear downside corrective pattern completed in 11814-11782 range.
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