Nifty opened bit higher at 11728, declined to register day’s low 11682 but bounced back by more than 100 points to register day’s high 11784 and closed 28 points up at 11737.
Yesterday, overall pattern was indicating bounce towards 12252 with 11706-11598 as support but I advised to concentrate on internal wave patterns for trading. 11758 was immediate upside breakeven/trend reversal point, upside reversal was expected after break above 11758 only.
Nifty Future was advised to sell at 11770 using exact stoploss 11301 expecting 11700 as minimum downside target. Nifty future decline till 11725 after trade, was giving 45 points profit but Nifty bounced back later and stoploss was triggered. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. There is slight change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems, inner wave (1) of 5 completed from 10004-10985, wave (2) may be completed from 10985-10585 Double Irregular Correction, wave (3) may be completed from 10585-11856, wave (4) may be completed from 11856-11108 as Simple Zigzag and wave (5) may be in progress.
Wave (3) is less than 161% and not extended, so wave (5) needs to be extended. So, minimum 61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 11252.
Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (5) on lowest possible time frame.
This is 15 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11108 which I marked as start of wave (5) on daily chart. Again, there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems wave inner wave (i) of (5) completed from 11108-11294, (ii) may be completed from 11294-11137 and wave (iii) may be completed from 11137-11883 and wave (iv) may be in progress.
23%-38% retracement of wave (iii) is placed at 11706-11598. So, 11706-11598 is immediate support and 11598 is immediate downside breakeven point.
Nifty can give one more bounce of 296-478 points from support range but breaking below 11598 can result in further decline towards 11108-11000.
Now let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (iv) on lowest possible time frame.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11883 which I marked as start of wave (iv) on 15 Minutes Chart.
The move seems impulsive with inner wave (a or 1) completed from 11883-11811, (b or 2) completed from 11881-11870, (c or 3) completed from 11870-11682.
Wave (c or 3) retraced by more than 38% after breaking above 11758 but the pattern of retracement seems corrective till now. This deeper than 38% retracement with corrective pattern is creating confusion.
If this 3 waves pattern from 11682-11784 is wave (1) and (2) followed by inner wave (i) and (ii) of (3) then Nifty can bounce straightway towards 11252 but if the pattern is (abc) the decline towards 11598 is possible, breaking below 11598 will indicate major weakness.
Overall, we need to observe further move tomorrow to identify exact pattern.
For Short/Medium Term: – Overall pattern is indicating minimum bounce towards 11252 whereas 11706-11598 is support. 11598 is immediate downside breakeven and we can think of any downside reversal after break below 11598 only.
Minimum bounce of 296-478 can be expected from support range 11708-11598 even if not 12252. But Nifty if manage to break and stay below 11598 can result in further fall towards 11100.
For Intraday: Nifty is closed at a point where we can predict any one sided move confidently, we need to observe further move tomorrow to identify exact pattern.
(If this 3 waves pattern from 11682-11784 is wave (1) and (2) followed by inner wave (i) and (ii) of (3) then Nifty can bounce straightway towards 11252 but if the pattern is (abc) then decline towards 11598 is possible, breaking below 11598 will indicate major weakness.)
Trading Points of View:
Overall pattern is indicating one more bounce of minimum 296-478 points from 11706-11598 range but internal pattern is closed at a confusing point. So, trading decision can be taken during live market hours only after identifying the exact internal pattern.
On the other hand, pattern can complete or change quickly because of Volatility and sharp move. So, I will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in pattern/important levels during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast.
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