Nifty opened higher at 11376, registered low 11370 and bounced further by more than 110 points to register day’s high 11487 but declined back and closed 83 points down at 10426.
Yesterday, overall pattern was indicating bounce towards 11566-11797 in coming days but internal waves were sharp and highly extended. 11233-11141 was overall support and any downside reversal was expected after break below 11141.
I didn’t suggest any exact trade because stoploss for buying was very big and there was lower risk reward in buying. I advised to wait for formation of downside corrective pattern to buy or downward impulse to sell. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5.
Now, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.
It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.
Normal 100%-123% projection for wave (C or 3) is placed at 11566-11797 which is normal target range for completion of wave (C or 3).
Wave (C or 3) is very sharp and straight with gap in between. So, let’s analyse the progress of wave (C or 3) on separate lowest possible time frame.
This is 30 Minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11118 which I marked as start of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.
It seems, inner wave (a or 1) completed from 10585-10939, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 10939-10751 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. Wave (c or 3) is trading higher above 161% projection.
I tried to count inner waves of (c or 3) but counts are not convincing because of steep and sharp rise without any reasonable correction. So, I will assume this sharp as progress of wave (c or 3) until I see any reasonable correction.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11313-11205. So, 11313-11205 is short term support and 11205 is short term breakeven point. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11205 only.
For Short/Medium Term: – Nifty is still in positive zone and overall pattern is indicating minimum bounce towards 11566-11797 in coming days but bounce is so sharp and steep that I am able to identify inner waves confidently.
Overall, 11313-11205 is short term support and 11205 is short term breakeven point. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11205 only. Nifty is still in positive zone as long as trading above 11205.
There is no confident outlook for intraday or very short term, we need to wait for some decline/correction to calculate immediate moves confidently.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Trading Points of View:
Overall trading strategy is “Buying on Dips” but low risk entry for buying is near 11205 and stoploss is below 11205 which is more than 200 points from present levels. So, I can’t suggest buying right now, we need to wait for correction towards 11313-11205 or formation of any confident corrective pattern to buy.
We can’t sell because we don’t have stoploss for selling. Wave (c or 3) is in progress with highly extended inner waves and we should not try to catch the top of wave (3).
So, I am not suggesting any trade right now and will not suggest until I see good risk reward no matter how long I need to wait, because I prefer to trade only when there is risk reward. Otherwise traders who want to trade can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.
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