Nifty opened almost flat at 11151, registered low 11108 but bounced back by more than 180 points to register day’s high 11294 followed by sharp decline of 110 points again and finally closed 73 points up at 11222.
Friday, Nifty was in negative zone with 11283-11381 as major resistance and 11381 as major upside breakeven point. 11166-11191 was immediate resistance and decline towards 11014 was expected very soon.
Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” on every 23%-38% bounce or in resistance. Nifty Future was suggested to Sell at 11774 with stoploss of 11223 through WhatsApp broadcast during live market but stoploss for trade was triggered. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart. Again, there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 11856.
38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11370 and same is already broken. 11370 was short/medium term breakeven point and is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Nifty traded below 11370 for 2-3 session and warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks, Nifty achieved 11125 till now.
The pattern formed may be Irregular Correction at top or wave 5 may be progressing as ED.
Now, let’s analyse the decline started from 11856 to check its pattern and internal wave counts.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856 which I marked as end of wave (C or 3) on daily chart.
It seems, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 11856-11588, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11588-11789 as irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11269-11368. So, 11269-11368 is short/medium term resistance and 11368 is major upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11368 for a day can result in upside reversal otherwise cautions for further decline towards 10585-10004 are there.
Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11796-11625, (ii) may be completed from 11625-11789 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (iii) may be completed at 11109 or still in progress.
Now, let’s have a separate look at bounce after 11109 to check its pattern.
This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11108.
The very last decline at bottom looks like a (abc) wave, so there is possibility of Irregular Correction at bottom.
The bounce from 11108-11294 is impulsive. This impulse can be wave (A) or (1) in normal case but can be wave (C) if there is Irregular Correction at bottom. It is difficult to identify the exact pattern. And this impulse is corrected by exact 61%, following the retracement of wave (A) or (1).
The later decline from 11294-11181 also looks like an impulse and can be wave (a) or (1) of (c), exact pattern can’t be identified because previous wave is not clear. This impulsive decline also retraced by almost 61%.
Overall, we can’t conclude any confident move on this chart, we need to observe further move to identify the exact pattern. Wave’s personality wise, Nifty if fails to break above 11294 within 2-3 hours can result in sharp decline towards 11108-11000.
For Short/Medium Term: – Same as I explained in my last analysis report. Major support 11370 is broken and internal pattern also indicating further fall. So, overall conditions are warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks. 11269-11368 is fresh major resistance and we can think of major reversal after break above 11368 only.
For Intraday/Very Short Term, We don’t have any confident levels or outlook but Nifty if fails to break above 11294 within 2-3 hours after opening can result in sharp decline towards 11108-11000 again.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Trading Points of View:
There is no change in overall trading strategy, our main preference will be selling on every 23%-38% rise until we see any confident bullish pattern. Probable downside targets range is 10585-10004 and 11269-11368 is overall resistance now, we will plan to sell in resistance range.
We don’t have any advance Intraday/Very Short term trade. We will look for trading opportunities during live market hours based on internal patterns.
I will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in pattern/important levels or any low risk trading opportunity during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast. Otherwise, traders can also plan their own trade based on the conditions and levels explained above.
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