Nifty opened bit higher at 11314 and traded in 11270-11347 range for most of the day followed by decline of about 90 point from 11345-11251 in last 45 minutes and closed 22 points down at 11278.
Friday, Nifty was in negative zone with 11383-11485 as immediate resistance and 11485 as immediate upside breakeven point and one more decline of 200-300 points was possible. Any upside reversal was possible after break above 11485.
Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” on every 23%-38% bounce or in resistance. Nifty registered new low 11251 but without touching resistance 11383-11458. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.
It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 11856.
38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11370 and same is already broken. 11370 was short/medium term breakeven point and is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Nifty traded below 11370 for complete two session and warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks.
The pattern formed may be Irregular Correction at top or wave 5 may be progressing as ED.
Now, let’s analyse the decline started from 11856 to check its pattern and internal wave counts.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856 which I marked as end of wave (C or 3) on daily chart. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
There is lots of confusion on this chart because of sharp move and repeated overlapping in between. I had to change the wave counts every next day on this chart. Pattern is again confusing but still I tried to mark most probable wave counts.
Now it seems, wave (a or 1) may be completed from 11856-11588, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 11588-11789 as irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11381-11458. So, 11381-11458 is short/medium term resistance and 11458 is major upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11458 for a day can result in upside reversal otherwise cautions for further decline towards 10585-10004 are there.
Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 11796-11625, (ii) may be completed from 11625-11789 as Double Zigzag Correction and wave (iii) may be in progress.
Within wave (iii), it seems inner wave  may be completed from 11789-11573,  may be completed from 11573-11656,  may be completed from 11656-11255 and wave  or  may be in progress.
If wave  is already completed at 11345 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave  is placed at 11141-11014. So, 11141-11014 is will be the minimum target range for completion of wave .
23%-38% retracement of wave  is placed at 11349-11408. So, 11349-11408 is immediate upside resistance.
Now, let’s have a separate look at the progress of wave  started from 11255 to see if it is complete or still in progress.
This is 5 minute time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 11255 which I marked as start of wave .
The move after 11255 is complex in nature. Normally, it seems wave  is still in progress as Irregular Correction with inner wave (A) completed from 11255-11347, very complex and Double Irregular (B) completed from 11347-11251 and wave (C) may be pending.
Wave (C) may complete somewhere above 11347 to complete wave  followed by start of downward wave .
Otherwise, It is also possible that wave  already completed at 11347 followed by very complex type of inner wave [i] and [ii] of  formed from 11347-11345. It is very difficult to find exact pattern in complex move.
On Friday, overall pattern was indicating minimum 200-300 points decline in coming days with 11364-11458 resistance but still I didn’t suggest selling because of this complex pattern. I was not confident if wave  already completed at 11345.
For Short/Medium Term: – Short/medium term breakeven point 11370 is already. 11370 is the deciding point from where Nifty can bounce for new life high or can start further decline towards 10585-10004. Nifty traded below 11370 for 02 sessions and internal pattern also indicating further fall. So, overall conditions are warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks. 11383-11458 is still the major resistance and we can think of major reversal after break above 11458 only.
For Intraday/Very Short Term, So, 11349-11408 is immediate resistance and there is possibility of further decline of 200-300 points from the resistance range. 11458 is major resistance/breakeven point after 11408.
If Nifty declines straightway from present levels (without breaking above 11347) then 11141-11014 is minimum downside target range for next down leg.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Trading Points of View:
Nifty traded below major breakeven point 11370 for complete 2 sessions and internal pattern is also indicating further fall. So, overall conditions are warning cautions for decline towards 10585-10004 in coming days/weeks.
So, our preference will be selling on every 23%-38% rise until we see any confident bullish pattern. 11349-11458 is overall resistance now, we will plan to sell in resistance range.
Nifty can decline from present levels also (without touching resistance range), we need to look for any internal upside corrective pattern to trade in this conditions.
I will update about formation of any important internal pattern or any change in pattern or any low risk trading opportunity during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast. Otherwise, traders can also plan their own trade based on the conditions and levels explained above
The biggest event (Election Results) is on the cards and Nifty can give sudden/unexpected moves till 23 May 2019, waves may project/retrace abnormally. So, we need to be careful in trading for next 2 weeks.
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