Nifty opened lower at 11727, declined further after opening and traded with negative bias for rest of the day. Nifty declined by more than 160 points to register day’s low 11583 and closed 158 points down at 11594.
Thursday, 11738 was immediate support and downside breakeven point and Nifty was expected to decline further towards 11580-11549 if breaks and stay below 11738 for 15 minutes. Otherwise one more bounce for high above 11856 was possible if Nifty fails to break below 11738.
Trading strategy was to sell Nifty on bounce towards 11790-11810 if breaks and stay below 11738 for 15 minutes expecting decline towards 11580-11549. Nifty broke below 11738 and almost achieved downside target 11580-11549 but didn’t give chance to sell. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
This analysis report is covering move after 6825 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last “All Time Frames” analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018.
This is daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after low 6825 which I marked as start of wave [V] on daily chart in my last “All Time Frames” Report. This is the same chart which I had explained in my last analysis report because there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
The last bounce from 9951-11760 looks like a 3 waves move and Nifty declined very sharply from 11760 without completing Impulse or ED Pattern. So, wave counts and personality of move is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction at top.
So, may be inner wave ‘3’ of [v] is completed at 11171 and ‘4’ may be completed at Irregular Correction at 10004 and wave ‘5’ may be in progress. Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 11664-12689 but earlier high is 11760, so 11760-12689 is minimum target range for completion of wave 5. Wave 5 achieved minimum 11761 but pattern doesn’t seem completed.
So, let’s analyse the progress of wave 5 started from 10004 separately to calculate internal moves.
This is again daily time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 10004 which I marked as start of inner wave ‘5’ of [v] on daily chart.
It seems an Impulse completed from 10004-10985 and same can be marked as wave (A or 1), there is Double Irregular Correction from 10985-10585 and same can be marked as wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress. Wave (C or 3) already achieved normal 123% projection.
Within wave (C or 3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 10585-10939, wave (ii) may be completed from 10939-10751 and wave (iii) may be completed at 11572, wave (iv) may be completed at 11311 and (v) may be completed at 11856 or still in progress. Wave (v) already achieved minimum 38% projection.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 11556-11370. So, 11556-11370 is fresh short/medium term support and 11370 is short/medium term downside breakeven point and any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11370 only.
Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (v) started from 11311.
This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 11311 which I marked as start of wave (v) hourly chart.
It seems inner wave  of (v) completed from 11311-11546,  may be completed from 11546-11413,  may be completed from 11413-11761,  may be completed from 11761-11549 and wave [v] may be in progress. Wave  retraced deeper than 38% and completed near its max limit 11546.
Wave  achieved minimum 61% projection but pattern looks like a 3 waves move. So, either wave  is already completed at 11856 or there is a formation of Irregular at top and wave  is still running.
There is confusion in the overall pattern on this chart, so we need to concentrate on decline after 11856 to calculated immediate important levels.
This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after 11856. I am analyzing this chart independently because there is bit confusion in previous move.
It seems wave (a or 1) completed from 11856-11738, wave (b or 2) completed from 11738-11791 and wave (c or 3) may be already completed from 11791-11583 or still in progress.
23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 11632-11662. So 11632-11662 is immediate resistance and 11662 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11662 can result is further bounce towards 11791-11856 otherwise one more decline of minimum 100-160 points (38%-61% projection of earlier decline for wave 5) is possible without breaking higher above 11662.
Within wave (c or 3), it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed and (v) may be in progress. Wave (v) achieved minimum 38% projection and next 61%-100% projection is placed at 11581-11526. 100% projection for wave (v) is rare case, so 11526 is immediate support and Nifty can consolidate or bounce by 50-80 points [23%-38% retracement of wave (c or 3)] before breaking lower below 11526.
For Short/Medium Term: – Nifty is in positive zone for medium term with 11556-11370 as fresh short/medium term support. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 11370 only. 11827-11999 expected target range.
For Intraday/Very Short Term, 11632-11662 is immediate resistance and 11662 is immediate upside breakeven point. Nifty if breaks and stay above 11662 can result is further bounce towards 11791-11856 otherwise one more decline of minimum 65-110 points is possible without breaking higher above 11662.
11526 is immediate support and Nifty can consolidate or bounce by 50-80 before breaking lower below 11526.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.
Trading Points of View:
According to conditions on charts: –
Nifty if breaks and stay above 11662 for 15 minutes then later decline towards 11632-11620 can be used to buy Nifty using exact stoploss of 11599 expecting bounce towards 11791-11856 in coming days.
Low risk selling range is near 11662. Nifty if form upside corrective pattern in 11650-11662 range then Selling can be done in this range using exact stoploss of 11633 expecting decline of 100-160 points.
11526 is immediate support, so Nifty if fall straightway (without giving bounce) near 11526 then light intraday buying can be done using exact stoploss of 11517 expecting 50-80 points bounce. Exit the trade Intraday.
These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.
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