Nifty opened higher at 8949 and bounced further to register day’s high 9038 but declined back sharply by more than 500 points to register day’s low 8522 and closed 18 points up at 8660.
Friday, 8504-8353 was immediate support and Nifty was expected to bounce towards 8926-9219 and any downside reversal was expected after break below 8353 only.
Nifty opened higher and upside target range 8926-9219 was achieved at opening only. Later 8818 was immediate downside breakeven point after registering high 9038 and same was broken. Later 8818-8900 was immediate resistance and Nifty was expected to decline towards 8454-8094 and same was updated by WhatsApp.
Nifty entered in resistance 8818-8900 after sending update, registered high 8839 and closed at 8674. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.
We prepared last all time frame analysis report of Nifty in June 2018 and link to that analysis report is Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty on All Time Frame dated 03 Jun 2018. Now, we are analyzing all time frames again and let’s start Elliott Wave Analysis of Nifty with Monthly chart.
This is monthly time bar chart of Nifty covering its life time of move. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.
It seems major wave (1) completed from 775-6357, wave (2) may be completed from 6357-2252, wave (3) may be completed from 2252-12430 and major wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.
Pattern of wave (3) is not convincing but it is corrected by more than 38% so I am assuming wave (3) completed at 12430 based on its 38% retracement.
23%-38% retracement of wave (3) is placed at 10027-8542. 8542 is major downside breakeven point which is already broken and Nifty already traded below 8542 for 2-3 sessions.
Breaking and staying below 8542 is indicating signs of major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major long term resistance.
Further wave (3) is retraced deeper than 38% but we don’t have any other pattern right now, so I am still assuming the decline after 12439 as wave (4) unless wave (1) is overlapped. But further outlook will be calculated based on the pattern of decline after 12430.
So, let’s have a separate look at progress of major wave (4) started from 12430 to check its pattern.
This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Nifty covering decline after all time high 12430 which I marked as start of major wave (4) on monthly chart.
The decline seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 12430-12087, wave (ii) may be completed from 12087-12246 as big irregular correction, wave (iii) may be completed from 12246-8555, wave (iv) may be completed at 10159 and wave (v) may be completed at 7511.
The impulse completed from 12430-7511 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 23%-38%-61% of this whole impulsive decline is placed at 8671-9390-10550 and same levels can act as short term resistance. Nifty already achieved 8671.
Now, let’s have a look at pattern of bounce after low 7511 to calculate immediate outlook.
This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering bounce after 7511 which I am analyzing independently.
The bounce after 7511 seems impulsive with inner wave (i) completed from 7511-7994, wave (ii) may be completed from 7994-7714, (iii) may be completed from 7714-8749, wave (iv) may be completed from 8749-8454 and wave (v) may be completed from 8454-9038. This upside Impulse from 7511-9038 can be wave (a or 1).
23%-38% retracement of wave (v) is placed at 8900-8818 and same is already broken. Now, 8818-8900 can act as immediate resistance after break and stay below 8818.
Normal 38%-61% retracement of wave (a or 1) is placed at 8454-8094. So, 8454-8094 is normal expected range for completion of wave (b or 2). Further outlook can be calculated after checking the pattern in 8454-8094.
For Long Term, Nifty broke major downside breakeven point 8542, so there are cautions for major recession and 8542-10027 can act as major resistance now. We can be confident about major upside reversal after staying above 10027 only.
For short/medium term, 8671-9390-10550 can act as short term resistance. Nifty already achieved 8671 and further outlook can be calculated based on pattern of bounce after 7511.
Very short term/Intraday, 8818-8900 is immediate resistance and Nifty has possibility to decline towards 8454-8094. This 8454-8094 range can also act as immediate support but further confident outlook can be calculated after checking pattern in 8454-8094 range.
Nifty if completed downside corrective pattern in 8454-8094 range then we can expected one more bounce of 1500-1800 points.
Nifty is still volatile and fear is there in market. We personally like to trade safe and doing hedged trades only. So, we are just suggesting most probable low risk trading strategies to give ideas, traders who want to take risk or can manage trades can use these levels and conditions to plan their own trade.
Nifty can be sold if get in 8818-8900 range using stoploss some points above 8900 expecting 8454-8900 as downside target range. We need to check pattern again if Nifty stay above 8900 for more than 15 minutes.
Nifty if completes downside corrective pattern in 8454-8094 range then Buying can be done after break of upside breakeven point for bounce of 1500-1800 points. This trade can be planed after getting confirmation from pattern because upside breakeven point can be calculated based on the pattern formed in 8454-8094 range.
Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.